Will the Rhubarb Battery take over?
In many areas of life, it seems humankind is on the cusp of some major changes. In the markets, it appears inevitable that sometime in the not-too-distant future, the mania for assets of all kind will burn out and stocks in particular will enter a severe deflationary collapse and that most hated asset – cash – will be king once more.
But in a related field – energy generation – there are some remarkable developments that promise to transform how we generate energy in the form of electricity, and its cost. The long-held promise of cheap energy generation from solar in particular has been dashed so far – but that is about to change. And if so, there will be major ructions in the global crude oil sector.
The one handicap that solar has been suffering has been energy storage. To date, there has been no cheap technology to store solar energy in quantity. Many have been working on batteries that contain expensive rare earth metals – and these are used in electric cars with some success. But for the national grid, this avenue appears a dead end.
But now, there are several experimental technologies that hold great promise. And in today’s Telegraph, the ever-relevant AEP highlights just one such amusingly called the “Rhubarb Battery” because it uses an electrolytic chemical commonly found in rhubarb! And I would venture to suggest that growing rhubarb is a lot easier and cheaper than fracking for oil or digging for rare earths.
So we appear to be on the verge of a revolution in energy production – and of course, the initial impetus for searching for alternative sources was the almost universal desire to reduce carbon dioxide (and other so-called evil ‘greenhouse gases’) emissions that were said to be dangerously warming the planet (but have been increasing crop yields, which few warmists acknowledge).
As you know, I am in the habit of questioning generally accepted beliefs – and the global warming story is no exception. I will not rehearse my questions about this theory here. My point is that with the media wholly on board the global warming bandwagon, here we have several technologies that promise to severely curtail the growth in carbon emissions – if not send them spiraling down.
But with the sun’s activity (that is the biggest driver of earth’s climate, of course) trending down, is it possible that this will herald a period of global cooling to match the medieval ‘Little Ice Age’? Actually at least one solar physicist believes it is possible .
And if we are due a natural solar-induced cooling period just as our carbon dioxide levels are falling hard, that would be the ultimate irony, would it not? There would be a severely reduced ‘greenhouse effect’ just when we need it at the same time as the sun is cooling us! A double whammy, indeed.
And that would be the ultimate proof that God surely does have a dry sense of humour. Sometime in the future, I can imagine people praying for more carbon as they scrape the ice off their cars in July.
Many global stock markets remain bullish
As most markets have, the Hong Kong market has rallied strongly this year, and its reversal is in the form of a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern:
And the blue neckline was broken last month in a bullish display. The placement of the right hand touch point is a little problematical, but if I zoom in on that section, you will see a terrific upside breakout of a lovely wedge pattern:
Note that I have the usual five sub waves within the wedge and crucially, wave 5 did not have the strength to reach the lower wedge line – and that indicated a sharp break up lay ahead. And so it has proved with only seven small down days in the last twenty-eight. That is one strong thrust out of the wedge – and shows why I love finding these usually reliable patterns.
So now my first major target is the 23.300 area.
Many eyes are on the Olympic Games in Brazil, so I thought I would take a look at its stock index. And what do I find? I find a nearly completed five up!
There are several textbook features. Elliott waves 1 and 2 is a clear five wave continuation (see text, pp 38 – 39, 144 – 145) while wave 3 is long and strong and contains its own five up (green bars).
Then, wave 4 is corrective and leads to the current wave 5 which, like wave 3, contains its own five up. There could be one or more up/down sequence to finish it off, but the rally appears near its end, especially given the potential momentum divergence forming. The key level is the 55,000 area and if this is broken, we should see a major corrective phase in A-B-C form.
Interestingly, there is an article on Bloomberg today that highlights that Brazil has always been the country of the future – and always will be. Today, the nation is mired in an economic depression and it would be ironic if the Olympics provided the marker for the top in the stock market as the peak in positive sentiment.