I have never bought into the panic over Global Warming (aka Climate Crisis) ever since it reared its head way back in the 1980s. For one thing, the earth’s temperature – a nebulous concept at the best of times – is slowly increasing on a very long time-line measured in thousands of years from the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago. Along the way, there have been many dips (the Frost Fairs on the frozen Thames?)
For another, the ‘experts’ blame carbon dioxide as the sole culprit. Incidentally, the most fervent adherents to the crisis theory mistakenly refer to the gas as ‘carbon’. They want do ‘de-carbonise’ the world. Sadly for them, humans are mostly composed of carbon atoms so maybe their true motivation is to destroy. humanity. Hmm.
But CO2 is a trace gas (less than 4 molecules for every 10,000 oxygen and nitrogen molecules in the atmosphere) and it acts as essential plant food (remember the carbon cycle and photosynthesis from school?). If there were no CO2 in the atmosphere, we wouldn’t be here.
Also, more CO2 means more food for a partly-starving world as crop yields improve under CO2. Commercial growers pump it into their greenhouses. So what’s not to like about the very low levels of CO2 in the air?
And it is our sun that dominates all climate and weather on earth, not CO2. If the sun dies, we are history.
Of course, basic facts like these are never mentioned in the propaganda emanating from the warming ‘experts’. No wonder experts have such a bad name today. Their reputation has not been enhanced by the mess of advice over Covid-19. To paraphrase the Bard of Avon: To mask or not to mask is the question!
Only recently have some major figures admitted that the CO2 climate crisis scare was invented to bring about political, economic and social changes they deem necessary – not about climate change.
So that places me very much in the minority (which is a place I prefer, as you know) – as a contrarian in this matter.
But with the latest revelation that the sun is cooling, are we merry band of skeptics being vindicated?
This is a chart of the solar wind (SW) temperature since 1960. The solar wind is the stream of energetic particles emitted by the sun and interacting with our atmosphere. It is a major source of our energy. Without them, we would be more like Pluto. Brrr.
Note the new low in SW temperature just reached, and the sharply weakening trend off the 1990 high. The peaks have become lower and correspond roughly to the 11-year sunspot cycle (we are in a minimum).
If this data shows the sun’s surface is getting cooler, we will receive less energy from it – and the earth will follow suit. And note the huge temp range. The SW was 250,000 degrees in 1990 and now only 30,000 degrees. That is an eight-fold cooling in 30 years. Hardly a ‘warming crisis’ story, is it?
So once again, with the vast majority of people now being brainwashed into believing in the crisis, will we see yet another vindication of Joe Granville’s maxim: When everyone believes something is obvious, it is obviously wrong.
The ‘climate crisis’ has become a religion with skeptics burned at the stake. Not literally (yet), but many university professors have lost their jobs if they have even suggested we look at the data.
Ominously, snow fell in Sydney Australia last week – a rare event for August. The Southern Hemisphere seems to be cooler than normal.
So if we are in a cooling trend, it would be the greatest irony in world history. Imagine this futuristic scenario – riots in the street demanding we dig up and bring back coal fires to pump more CO2 into the atmosphere since it is a terrific ‘greenhouse gas’ as the alarmists never fail to remind us! A ban on electric vehicles! Locking up anyone who promotes global warming! In schools, global cooling and basic physics to be taught from junior school! Farmers finally happy! If George Orwell were alive, he would no doubt write a great novel.
Sadly, there are few well-paid jobs going in the (imaginary) global cooling sector. No, if anyone wants a well-paid career, they should be looking in the ‘climate crisis’ sector and even the oil majors (BP and Shell) have huge opportunities there.
But mark: governments and generals always fight the last war while the next challenge arrives by stealth when few are prepared.
One straw in the wind may be coming from Natural Gas prices which are rising sharply in the face of a supply glut. Is it telling us to expect a hard Northern Hemisphere winter ahead?
Bullish sentiment in cooling is on the floor – and that is one reason I am warming to it!
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Cooling would be bullish for ag commodities
If the earth is in a cooling/wet phase, the implications for ag crops is huge. Already, Wheat, Corn and Soybeans are moving up off their extreme lows. Global weather has been generally favourable to these crops in recent years and with record high output, prices had sunk to near-record lows.
But I sense a major long-term shift in this pattern. Remember, the cure for low prices is low prices! Already, UK Wheat production this season is down a stunning 40% from the cold/wet spring that hit plantings hard. There is much talk of higher UK bread prices this year (although the cost of the flour in a loaf is peanuts).
With our bull campaigns for VIP Traders Club in full swing, now you know why I went a little off-piste with the sun story above. And why I have been pushing hard to VIP Traders Club members earlier this year for this bull campaign.
Adding to upward pressure to demand is the escalating famine in much of the less-developed world -as well as the US (food banks being overwhelmed). The UN has just issued a report quoting a pandemic-influenced famine of ‘biblical’ proportions developing. I sense this will become a huge issue soon. Oxfam was born from a response to the famines in Africa especially in the 1960s and should come into its own in the years ahead.
Here is the long distance Corn chart
Earlier this year I noted a possible Double Bottom four years in the making. And so far, that scenario seems to be panning out. And given the large momentum divergence at the recent low, the reversal should be substantial.
We have bull campaigns working for VIP Traders Club in all ag crops.