We are still poised for some major moves

This will be a short and sweet blog today.

Last week the Fed continued their habit of not frightening the horses with their ‘bullish’ noises.  But no matter, stocks crumbled anyway with the Nasdaq particularly hit hard.  What a superb illustration  that the Fed does not control the markets, as so many believe. Of course, it is the market that controls the market.   It is a self-organising organic being that operates mostly from internal forces.

My feeling this weekend is that we are at  or very near historic turning points. Is that the sound of bells I hear?

Next week is the Autumn Equinox which can often mark such changes.  I am particularly looking for a major turn up in the dollar – and a coincident turn up in bond yields.  Both events will shock most traders.

Luckily, the teenage Robinhood traders appear not to be a major force in these two sectors, as they are in some stocks

US DOLLAR

Is forming a major base here and interestingly I have a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming with an excellent neckline with highly accurate touch points

A clear surge above it would send it on its way.

NASDAQ

I identified a major shelf of support in yesterday’s Trade Alert and later that day, it broke hard below it

and has now completed the first five down pattern to confirm new trend is down. I will be looking at bounces to sell short.

GOLD

Has done nothing of late and I did have a possible triangle forming that could signal a fresh rally phase, that seems to have petered out.  I am now waiting for the next clear signal but suspect the next big move will be lower.

SOYBEANS

For some this is surprise stunner of a bull market!  It isn’t for me as I have been tracking it for months well before the current surge.

Some are saying the rally is unsustainable with a series of consecutive up daily closes.  And latest COT data shows hedge funds are 5/1 net long and DSI bulls are above 90%.

That certainly is a reason to be cautious and that is why I have advised VIP Traders Club members to take part profit on the way up.  There really is no way to forecast a top of a strong bull run so I will not try.

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