FOCUS ON COMMODITIES
Commodity markets have been super hot in recent weeks, but not many have noticed, yet. But I did – and established great positions early on for VIP Traders Club members.
Don’t you just love MSM financial journalists? They are always a day late ad a dollar short. Here is yesterday’s headline that made me simply laugh out loud: The precious metal was always going to suffer once it hit a new price record.
Gold retreated off its early August $2075 ATH – and now three months later the author has noted it was ‘always going to suffer‘ from then on. If he had told me that in early August, that would have been useful to his readers. But not three months after the event. It does not take a genius to look backwards at a chart! Looking forwards is much harder, isn’t it?
He even quotes the old saw: The metal tends to be owned by investors because it is a “safe haven” if markets fall. If that is true why did Gold rally off the March low of $1460 to the Aug high at $2075, just as the Dow surged up from 18,000 to the early September high of 29,000? They moved in lockstep.
Were investors buying Gold because it was a ‘safe haven’ against falling stocks? Utter tripe – and typical rubbish from a lazy journalist. But par for the course in the MSM. Of course, it is aimed at the less experienced investor eager for information on how to invest. Lambs to the slaughter if they take this stuff seriously!
In fact, sometimes gold moves with shares and sometimes it moves against them. When overall market sentiment is rising, they usually move together. At present, it is moving with shares. But that could change at any time.
Yes, Gold has been correcting for three months – is is time to jump back on board?
If the correction is a three then odds favour the bullish case above but a break of my lower trendline would negate this forecast. Remember, bullish sentiment is high and latest COT data shows specs are heavily net long – and increasing their positions. While this is the usual position as the gold miners mostly hedge their production (increasing shorts), it is worth watching.
Corn is popping!
And apologies for the Richard Rogers’ Oklahoma! quote in my title above – I just couldn’t resist.
Can there be many UK-based traders in the huge US Ag markets? It is largely ignored. But I am happy to say my VIP Traders Club members certainly are. While trading the usual stock index and currency markets is far from easy at present, Wheat, Corn and Soybeans are in very strong bull trends. And I spotted the great opportunity earlier this year to get in early. This is the Corn chart I analysed
I noted that back in the Spring, prices had reached a multi-year low around $3 – a price that had not been penetrated in over a decade. I figured that only a historic disruption in the corn market could do that, such as an unlikely ramping up of global acreage – unlikely because of the old market rule that the cure for low prices is low prices (persistent low prices discourages farmers from planting to corn against other more profitable crops).
And so I advised members to go long just above the $3 mark as it presented a low risk trade. And today, it has climbed to $4.20 in a strong wave that looks very like a third EW of what should turn out to be an impulsive five up.
Note that there have been precedents for massive bull runs – in fact, the ATH of $8 was set in the summer of 2012. And with the US dollar trending lower, US export prices look very attractive especially to the Chinese, who import huge amounts.
If you think a move of about a dollar in Corn isn’t exciting enough, please think again. That is a 40% gain and corn attracts very low margins so your return on investment is very high, especially when this market is so huge and usually moves sedately until a clear trend emerges, as today.
We also have similar huge bull trends in Wheat, Soybeans and Cotton – and members are fully on board.
For those who are fixated on trading only the Dow, I encourage you to open your eyes to other possibilities for profit. Many consider Corn an unfamiliar market and best avoided. If you took away the name of your chart, you discover they all have the same features with Elliott waves, Fibs and tramlines. After all, does it really matter to you which chart your profits come from?
If you wish to join us in our ongoing campaigns in Wheat, Corn, Soybeans and Cotton, take a two week Free Trial to my VIP TRADERS CLUB where we trade stock indexes, currencies, gold and much more. Or take a generous three week Free Trial to my PRO SHARES service where we trade individual UK and US shares .
Natural Gas is at a crossroads
As experienced traders know full well, one of the most difficult aspects of trading is deciding when to take profits on a very profitable position. Many say that you never go broke taking a profit – and that’s obviously true as far as it goes. But most traders take losses along the way in other markets and must maximize gains in the winners to produce an overall profit.
Taking a profit too early hampers the road to profit and seeing your market run away from you without being onboard can be frustrating and possibly dangerous. Why so? Because when you are emotionally upset you tend to make terrible trading decisions – and suffer even more loss. And become even more disgusted with trading! You may even give up.
Is this familiar? If so, then I recommend you follow my trades for VIP Traders Club, especially the BASIC £5k Programme where all I ask is that you take all the trades as given without question and then walk away until you get the next Trade Alert. If you tend to question the trades and decide against them, you will suffer. Please be warned!
Members who are doing this have amassed stunning returns – just take my Free Trial offer above for demonstration. Early birds are making over five times their original investment.
So deciding when to take some profits on our long Nat Gas positions is of crucial importance. Here is the chart I have been using
Earlier this year, I noted the possible Double Bottom with strong mom divs and the three down look to the sharp decline off the 50 high in 2018. That was when I advised members to take long positions and we have been riding the subsequent bull run ever since.
But now it has reached the important Fib 50% retrace at around 32 and since this Fib level is often a turning point (as is the Fib 62% level) in strong market moves, I have been asking should we take at least some of our large profits here?