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scalded cat bounce

Shares are on a cliff edge

April 7, 2018 // 0 Comments

Exciting, isn’t it?  Blink and you miss a 200-pip swing in the Dow! Yesterday’s action was particularly vigorous following Thursday’s strong relief rally with heavy and persistent selling.  The whipsaws are huge – and the potential for being on the wrong side of them is likewise very very high.  More capital is lost in conditions such as these. [...]

Did you expect the unexpected?

March 10, 2018 // 0 Comments

There is one Golden Rule in trading I observe and that is: Always Expect the Unexpected. Although I have been bearish stocks since the January high, last week’s events gave me pause for the immediate downturn. Not only did North Korea appear to cosy up to Trump, but yesterday’s strong jobs data inspired a push to new highs for the move.  Both to me were [...]

Are UK house prices about to fall hard?

March 6, 2018 // 0 Comments

Like most people, I follow the incredible story of UK house prices and their stratospheric ascent in recent years. As I have pointed out before, the chart since WWII shows a lovely five wave pattern Isn’t that pretty?  We are in the final fifth wave and when it tops – which should be very soon – the first A wave of an A-B-C decline will be something to [...]

Correction to my S&P charts

December 16, 2017 // 1 Comment

Monday 18 December correction:  I have incorrect labels in the second chart of the 2-hr S&P and this is the correct labeling Wave 4 is Friday’s  a-b-c decline and wave 5 is the current wave.  This is the bearish option that would apply if the market turned hard down today.  It didn’t, so this is my most favoured interpretation: The December rally is a [...]

Does the US tax cut signal a top in stocks?

December 2, 2017 // 0 Comments

Yesterday’s volatile stock market action was telling.  For the first time in weeks, the Dow suffered a significant fall – but then recovered.  The VIX Volatility Index was likewise volatile (sharp up and then sharp down)  The news items that emerged were that a former administration official was about to spill the beans on the Russian Connection (down [...]
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