Smarter than the average bear?

Smarter than the average bear?


If, like me, you are mature(!) enough to have enjoyed the classic Hanna-Barbera Yogi Bear cartoons (and perhaps the recent movie) in the 60s and 70s, you know that Yogi is the lumbering klutz who is always getting into scrapes in Jellystone Park, while Boo-Boo is his much smarter (and smaller) side-kick, who always saves the day.

The running gag is that Yogi believes he has escaped harm by his superior skills, with the catch phrase ” I’m smarter than the average bear, Boo-Boo!“.  Cue Boo-Boo rolling eyes and fade.  The phrase has passed down into current usage with the same ironic meaning.

Have I been the Yogi of the stock markets?  I cannot claim in seriousness that I am smarter than the average bear, simply because there are so few of us! Although my bearish stance has produced some very tasty short-term profits on major dips, the big one has eluded me, so far.  And this week, we had a repeat of a promising decline, but then a recovery.  In fact, that has occurred twice in the Dow this week.  Is this a record?

The high-risk Nasdaq has been performing better with substantial declines.  Many tech names are getting slaughtered.

Here is the 15-min Dow chart:

The Fri-Mon down move is a five waver, as is the Tues-Wed down move.  Both rallies carved out a small wedge.  These are usually resolved to the downside, as was the first on a large neg mom div.  There is a similar mom div this morning.

Annoyingly, the head fake yesterday cancelled out a very promising short trade.  But as I write, there is the same wedge pattern about to be resolved.

Will it resolve to the downside again?


See my previous posts here and on MW Trader emails for charts.

Sharp decline yesterday, but look at the chart:

The rally to the Fibonacci 38% level at $1315 was stopped in its tracks by the resistance there.  But it has fallen to my tramline in a traditional kiss.  If this kiss holds, we will se a scalded cat bounce up.

The risk for a long trade is low because protective stops can be placed just below the tramline.

This is the moment of truth near-term.

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