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Where’s the complacency gone?

October 8, 2013 // 0 Comments

A few days ago, I showed the VIX chart and suggested that we are at the start of a big wave 3 up and the next test was to be the 20 level.  Yesterday, it almost made 20. The VIX is a measure of the fear (or lack) in the market as it measures option premiums for S&P puts and calls.  When premiums narrow for puts (betting on a price fall), complacency has settled on [...]

Weekly Wrap

October 5, 2013 // 0 Comments

With the US government shutdown and the looming debt ceiling drama, the markets are still tracing out recognizable patterns!  In fact, I had a post yesterday calling for a bounce in the Dow, which arrived right on cue. Do you spend much time reading what the pundits have to say? The question traders need to ask themselves is this: If I spend a lot of time taking in the [...]

GBP is leading the way – down

October 4, 2013 // 0 Comments

The GBP/USD topped on Tuesday at the 1.6250 area, and currently is in a third wave down.  This could get very interesting (for the bears). It never fails to maze me that when the news is brightest, that is when major turns are very likely – and so it appears here.  Recent economic data has got the pundits excited that the UK economy is on the mend and just today I [...]

Reversal in the dollar today?

October 3, 2013 // 0 Comments

Overnight, the EUR/USD made an overshoot of my upper expanding triangle line.  I showed this chart a few days ago and this is it updated. When I see an overshoot following a strong one-directional move such as the euro has enjoyed, I tend to get excited.  Usually, the overshoot tells me the move is very likely exhausted and the next immediate move is counter-trend ( [...]

Dow makes new low, but not Nasdaq

October 2, 2013 // 0 Comments

  Dow makes a new low today and I caught a nice short on the early rally.  But the Nasdaq is not declining in synch – and this is what keeps me from being full-on bearish the Dow (yet).  I still believe the nonsense around the US shut-down is just an excuse for bulls to take profits, and eventually, the Dow will work higher. The US housing stats out today was [...]
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