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Trader sentiment back in the clouds

October 25, 2013 // 0 Comments

So, I am having an acute deja vu all over again.  For traders with short memories – and there are a great many – as far back as last May, trader sentiment was also elevated.  And we know how the market resolved that little extreme – with the Dow plunging around 1,000 pips off the 22 May top in just one month. This date marks the all-time FTSE high, of [...]

It’s back to bad news = good

October 22, 2013 // 0 Comments

I shall be away Wednesday and Thursday giving a MoneyWeek workshop and will have no further posts until Friday. What a stinker of a US Jobs report today!  Only 148,000 new jobs vs expectation of 185,000.  Because traders believe the weak jobs growth (with the unemployment rate stuck at 7.2%) the Fed will have no alternative than to keep the QE spigots fully open. [...]

Crude oil flirts with $100

October 21, 2013 // 0 Comments

Crude oil trades more or less in synch with the Dow, and it is flashing a bear market alert.  This morning, it is testing the $100 level, which it hasn’t seen in weeks. I have been bearish crude for some time, and believe the next big leg will be down. As with most commodities, it is the QE spigots that are keeping crude prices afloat.  With expectations of QE [...]

Weekly Wrap

October 19, 2013 // 0 Comments

  So, it’s fill yer boots time again!  Grab that risk with both hands – you can’t lose.  The debt ceiling crisis is over and it’s perfectly OK to get back in the water.  You know the Dow is heading for 20,000, then 25,000.  I have even seen one quote for 100,000! Yes, we are in bubble territory again.  House prices are on the march, even [...]

The day after the night before

October 17, 2013 // 0 Comments

  So the crisis has passed.  Or has it? That can must be kicked into a pulp by now, surely.  Only another three months to the next drama – Happy Christmas, everyone! But what interests we merry band of traders is: what are the markets up to? Now we are in a ‘sell the news’ phase, will stocks retreat?  They have come off yesterday’s tops a [...]
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