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The dollar has turned

October 21, 2017 // 0 Comments

I rarely read about someone in the MSM who embraces the notion that we humans do not base our decisions on rationality, but on emotion.  Of course, this destroys in one fell swoop the basis on which economic theory as taught in universities! The latter is based on the notion that we always make economic decisions based on rational maximum utility – we will always [...]

Cryptomania in full flight

October 18, 2017 // 0 Comments

The incredible Bitcoin Bubble grew even larger last week but I fear the end is nigh.  Sentiment now appears off the scale if the many bullish articles on seekingalpha.com are anything to go by.  We know that in any rapidly-rising market, the bulls trot out all kinds of bogus reasons why the trend will not only continue, but even accelerate. This is human nature – [...]

Now the stock market bears are bulls!

October 15, 2017 // 0 Comments

I have been describing a whole slew of sentiment indicators here from the COT, AAII surveys, Investors Intelligence surveys, DSI surveys and all are saying the same thing loud and clear – bullish mania is extreme.  Of course, these indicators are no magic timing indicators where you can confidently base your trading entries in a contrarian play.  For that, I use [...]

We may be there – are stocks finally ready to turn?

October 7, 2017 // 0 Comments

It is always extremely hazardous forecasting when a manic bull trend is turning, especially in real time!  As the famous philosopher and baseball legend Yogi Berra said “ It ain’t over till it’s over“. And the famous atomic physicist Neils Bohr said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”. Many [...]

Are you ready for the Trade of the Century?

September 30, 2017 // 1 Comment

I will focus more heavily on the US stock indexes from now on because I believe we are getting very close to The Top.  It is striking that only some of the major US indexes are making new all-time highs among the global indexes. And none more so than the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both of which surged last week with the Dow lagging slightly. This is the Dow chart I [...]
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