I just love the MSM finance guys – they give me great trades!

I just love the MSM finance guys – they give me great trades!

The Brexit vote approaches and to me, there is little doubt that there has been much heat but little light in the campaigns, but that hasn’t stopped anyone voting one way or the other before.  And the MSM has been just as guilty of spreading mis-information.  In the Brexit war, the propoganda machines have been running white hot.

Here is a classic example from the finance pages of the Telegraph on the weekend: City bets on pound to suffer bigger plunge than Black Wednesday after Brexit vote’.

Naturally, you would infer that hedge funds would be loading up big time on short bets against GBP – and the natural cross for the City to choose would be cable (GBP/USD).

Luckily, we can do some due diligence here because we have the very reliable COT data to hand (although it is a few days old) – and here it is as of Tuesday 14 June

Does that increase of 72% in long positions the previous week demonstrate that hedge funds (many based in the City) are betting the pound will suffer a bigger plunge than on Black Wednesday?  If they are, they are bigger masochists than anyone thought.

So notch that article up to the growing list of wonderful contrary indicators because today as I write, cable is up over 2 1/2 cents for the biggest daily gain in seven years!

Now you know why I scan the Telegraph for many of my technical signals – here is another one: This one is another doozy from the annals of Timely MSM Contrary Indicators. It is also in the Telegraph and today is bemoaning the plunge in bond yields that is hurting many savers and investors.

So just as a major article in the MSM is featured, bond yields have reversed!  In fact, I forecast this reversal last week for my VIP Traders Club members and we managed to short the T-Bonds very near the top.

Here is the 2-hr chart of T-Bonds

The spike high last Thursday which took the market briefly above the upper tramline in a classic overshoot was the signal that the trend was about to reverse.  With the market testing T3, and bullish sentiment way off the scale, the scene is set for a massive decline.

Remember, the vast majority of traders believe the bull market will run and run as TINA is in force (There Is No Alternative).  Many EZ and Japan bond yields are already in negative territory, so the US (and UK?) cannot be far behind, surely?

But has anyone been noting what is happening in commodities and especially gold/silver?  Are these strong markets hinting that inflation is due to pick up and hence put upward pressure on bond yields?

I have started a trading campaign for VIP Club members that I expect to last several months at least.

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