Dow closes gap

Dow closes gap


My Equinox Indicator seems to be working this time (see yesterday’s MoneyWeek Trader email).  Naturally, this is not a trade timing tool, but it is remarkable how often at the equinox the market finds a top.  The odds are high that we have seen a major top of some kind last week in the Dow.


Last week saw the completion of the five up to Thursday’s high.  That meant the next move was down – and the market followed that script.

And note the neg mom div at the top!  Nice.

But this morning, the market has dropped down to the Fib 38% retrace – and has filled the gap from last week.

Not only that, but we have a new five down:

So what do I expect now?  A bounce!  Perhaps an A-B-C?  That would be good – and my upper target is the underside of the tramline in the 15,500 area.

That would be an ideal set-up for a short trade.  I shall watch and wait.


I was a little premature last week going long as the market had further to dip, but it appears the market is ready to rally once more:

My best guess is for a move above the old high at 99.60 and then on to 102 area.

I am looking to go long again.



It appears on the cusp of a large down leg:

Tramline has been broken and has been kissed.  I expect a big break soon.

I remain short.


They are following my script – rallying (against conventional wisdom, of course)

I am long from under 129 and have a target at the 131-132 area.  But it could get bumpy as we are getting mixed messages from the Fed – and of course, the economic data will induce volatility this month and into October.



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