Crude oil flirts with $100
Crude oil trades more or less in synch with the Dow, and it is flashing a bear market alert. This morning, it is testing the $100 level, which it hasn’t seen in weeks.
I have been bearish crude for some time, and believe the next big leg will be down. As with most commodities, it is the QE spigots that are keeping crude prices afloat. With expectations of QE tapering in a few months (this may or may not occur!), this has already pressured the precious metals – until last week, when we had a short squeeze relief rally.
If we are in w3 down, the move should be large – and be accompanied by similar falls in the Dow. So this is the prospect – provided Crude can trade well below the $100 level.
Have a budding A-B-C counter-trend decline which has completed, or nearly so:
And on a large pos mom div on the Fibonacci 62% retrace support.
A move above the 99 high should confirm my target at the 104 area.
As forecast, the T-Bonds have declined off the 133.50 high, where I exited my long position:
I am looking for a pull-back to possibly the 132 area.
Longer-term, the trend is still down and I believe yields are set for a big jump, which will catch many by surprise.
Is looking toppy this morning and I may be looking at a short position soon.