Crude oil and uranium are on their rocket ships

Crude oil  and uranium are on their rocket ships

Prior to my involvement with the financial markets, I have made two major forecasts in my life. In 1969 when I had just joined NASA, and as the hugely successful Apollo moon landings were kicking off our first forays into space, there was a general cry to now go to Mars (and beyond!). In fact, I was posted to the new Manned Mars Exploration Team (an insider!) where we looked at its feasibility. I concluded that because of the enormous cost – not to mention the many practical obstacles – that would not happen in my lifetime. Chalk one up to yours truly.

But the other one was about a couple of decades earlier when I firmly stated that rock ‘n roll would never last. Well, one out of two ain’t bad! In my defence, I was only a callow youth then and madly in love with jazz (of the mainstream variety).

If you knew my imperfect divining record, you would have probably viewed my more recent calls on crude oil and uranium with a little scepticism. But in fact, it is following the roadmap I laid out months ago.

Both energy commodities have something essential in common – both are leading into supply deficits with major price implications. While many investors/traders are waking up to this looming supply deficit situation in crude oil, very few have done so far with uranium. And thereby presents a major investment opportunity in the latter (as well as the former).

As I have been pointing out, the headlong rush into wind and solar for base load is now running into a few little difficulties and the once-shunned with bargepoles nuclear reactors are re-gaining favour with the planners. Even Rolls Royce shares, once in the doldrums, are booming as their modular reactors are coming our of the shadows.

The uranium ‘market’ is nowhere near on the same scale as that of crude oil. There are few producers (mines) and few users and there is no futures market. The closest we public traders have to assess the state of accurate uranium pricing is the Sprott Physical Uranium ETF

And this is the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF chart I posed on 29 August – two weeks ago

and now the share is trading higher at the 44 region.

So will uranium produce another exponential boom that happened before (in 2004 – 2006)? Let’s find out!

Meanwhile, crude keeps making new highs with US crude touching $90.50 this week.

I would like to point out the extreme political irony here. While the heavily government-subsidised wind and solar infrastructure is in a severe bear market (see last week’s Siemens and Orsted charts), the ‘evil’ energy sources of the heavily windfall-taxed crude and uranium are in boom conditions.

Future history books will use this Net Zero fiasco as a supreme example of how governments always back the wrong horses at the wrong times. Their grandiose and ideological top-down ‘environmental’ laws eventually meet up with down-to-earth practical – and financial – reality. The 1990s downfall of the Soviet Union is a case in point with the collapse of communism in Russia to a more market-oriented society (but only to a point!).

And that meeting with reality is now at hand with the start of major push-backs against the unaffordable costs of complying with Net Zero with some journalists in the MSM bravely sticking their heads above the groupthink parapet.

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So could it be we are seeing peak Net Zero fantasy mania? I have to say that if so, that would fit nicely with the start of the major wave three down in shares.

The political fantasy that is Net Zero has been matched by the equally strong recent mania for all things AI. Yes, the technology is clever and impressive, but is it investable for the long run?

Last week, Softbank issued its long-awaited IPO on Thursday in ARM Holdings (a computer chip company) – and what great timing! It is the biggest IPO of the year. It opened at $51 and was over-subscribed. It shot up to $69, then fell yesterday to close at $60.

But the more famous AI share – Nvidia – which I showed last week has topped. This is the chart I showed last week with Elliott wave labels marked:

My key support level was $450 the wave 1 low. It closed yesterday at $438 and has confirmed my roadmap. It is now heading lower in a third wave. This has very negative implications for the Nasdaq – and other indexes. And for ARM Holdings.

Watch out below!

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