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Have we reached peak optimism in stocks?

June 16, 2018 // 0 Comments

I believe we are very close – finally – to the big swoon in stock indexes most of us have been waiting for (some more patiently than others!) And I will lay out my updated case here, which I believe is stronger than ever. Last week was pivotal for commodities. Grains were clobbered hard (by the Trump/China spat fall-out). But more crucially, Copper [...]

Stocks surge and cattle fly!

June 9, 2018 // 0 Comments

Many of us have been expecting a stock market crash for some time, but the reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated – at least since February. While I believe that scenario will come to pass, in the meantime the rally continues, but on weak internals. And there are stark divergences between the major US indexes. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 – [...]

Why I believe crude oil has topped

June 2, 2018 // 0 Comments

In my post of 12 May The Oil Price Is Suddenly Hot News – Has It Topped? when the price had rallied to a multi- year high of $72, this was the short term chart I posted and this is the 4-hr chart today I believe I can remove the question mark now. This chart now shows the first small scale five down pattern that is almost mandatory to demonstrate a major trend [...]

As I said, sentiment is supreme

May 27, 2018 // 0 Comments

In a previous post The Oil Price is Suddenly Hot News – Has it Topped?, I pointed to the manic extreme bullish posture of hedge funds in the crude oil bubble which was waiting for the pin to arrive. It duly arrived on Friday. It matters not what the pundits chose to identify as the ’cause’ of the 5% crash. The MSM is always full of plausible-sounding [...]

This is why market sentiment is supreme

May 19, 2018 // 0 Comments

Last time, I explained at length why your views are not nearly as important in forecasting the price path as that of the other traders. Unless you have more funds available than hedge funds, central banks and governments put together, your trading will have precious little impact on the current price. So who sets the price? This is a common question among the [...]

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