Beware the Ides of March!
So said the soothsayer to Mr J Caesar – and he was assassinated on that very day in 44 BC, according to Mr W Shakespeare. But traders need not worry, as that fateful date falls tomorrow this year, when trading takes a break. Assassinations are not likely tomorrow.
But in my last post last week before my break, when I played soothsayer to the Dow, I wrote that I fully expect March to mark the top of the five-year relief rally. While away, on Friday 7 March, the Dow hit a high of 16,510. Since then, it has lost over 400 pips as it made a kiss on a tramline and is now in a scalded cat bounce down.
I have a MW Trader email out later today.
And didn’t I write last time that I expect the top to me made while I was away – as a prime example of Sod’s Law (or Murphy’s Law for my US readers) in action? That was excellent soothsaying – no?
So I believe my forecast for the stock market top in March stands on solid ground. Not only that, but gold is edging closer to my sub-$1400 target, the US dollar is strengthening, and Treasuries are rallying.
In terms of news, the Ukraine situation is hotting up, Chinese exports had a huge miss, and rumblings about slowing economies are getting louder. Suddenly, the world has become a more dangerous place. I will have more tomorrow in my Weekly Wrap.
Is making nice progress to $1370 area on the back of nervousness erupting in stock markets. Bullish sentiment remains highly elevated and there must be little room for disappointment.
I remain long but nervously eyeing the exits.
I believe has made its high:
The rally to 139.50 was made on a huge neg mom div and hit my upper tramline resistance.
After a small bouncer, I expect the market to suffer huge falls next week in a third wave.