Beware the Ides of March!

So said the soothsayer to Mr J Caesar – and he was assassinated on that very day in 44 BC, according to Mr W Shakespeare.   But traders need not worry, as that fateful date falls tomorrow this year, when trading takes a break.  Assassinations are not likely tomorrow.

But in my last post last week before my break, when I played soothsayer to the Dow, I wrote that I fully expect March to mark the top of the five-year relief rally.   While away, on Friday 7 March, the Dow hit a high of 16,510.  Since then, it has lost over 400 pips as it made a kiss on a tramline and is now in a scalded cat bounce down.

I have a MW Trader email out later today.

And didn’t I write last time that I expect the top to me made while I was away – as a prime example of Sod’s Law (or Murphy’s Law for my US readers) in action?  That was excellent soothsaying – no?

So I believe my forecast for the stock market top in March stands on solid ground.  Not only that, but gold is edging closer to my sub-$1400 target, the US dollar is strengthening, and Treasuries are rallying.

In terms of news, the Ukraine situation is hotting up, Chinese exports had a huge miss, and rumblings about slowing economies are getting louder.  Suddenly, the world has become a more dangerous place.  I will have more tomorrow in my Weekly Wrap.

GOLD

Is making nice progress to $1370 area on the back of nervousness erupting in stock markets.   Bullish sentiment remains highly elevated and there must be little room for disappointment.

I remain long but nervously eyeing the exits.

EUR/USD

I believe has made its high:

The rally to 139.50 was made on a huge neg mom div and hit my upper tramline resistance.

After a small bouncer, I expect the market to suffer huge falls next week in a third wave.

Until tomorrow.