What a fascinating (and landmark) week – especially for fans of conventional market analysis. Both the dollar and the T-Bonds made extremes (that may or may not last). but the major event was in US/UK stock indexes that swooned sharply.
Author: John Burford
Are you still unconvinced to trade Wheat (and also Corn and Soybeans) following my extensive coverage? Yes, there are so many other markets where most traders gravitate to from stock indexes to individual shares to gold and so on. We all have biases that favour particular markets. With my early exposure to trading the US grains futures markets when living in Washington D.C. I have always had an interest in them even in the years of over-supply when prices were low.
US Crude oil is in the process of correcting the huge surge to my main target to the $128 high a month ago. Latest quote is $96 – a decline of $32 (25%). Of course, the price could rally back from around here – or it could correct further as some traders expect a price-induced increase in supplies to the spot market.
The benchmark US 30-yr Treasury yield reached its historic low just above 1% in March 2020. What a time to short them! Back then, stocks were finishing up their Corona Crash and the Fed was assumed to be pulling out all the stops to keep rates ‘lower for longer’. There was even talk about the Treasuries going negative as so many European sovereigns were.
How important is accurate timing in your trades/investments? Many analysts can point to the correct overall direction of travel, but how many have you found that can consistently offer precise entries where the trade is in profit right from the off? Or even offer precise exit strategies?
Events and markets are moving very fast now. That is bringing in huge volatility where markets are turning on a dime. Large daily spikes up/down (and vice versa) are now common – such as yesterday’s (Friday) 800-pip spike up and then down roller coaster session in the Dow and the sharp reversal in the euro.
Could there be any doubt in the bowels of the Fed building that price inflation is actually not ‘transitory’ but deeply entrenched and getting deeper as energy prices (and also metals and ags) surge?
Regular readers will know that we have been riding these majestic waves ever higher in commodities – from crude oil to coffee to soybeans and more – from the lows almost exactly two years ago. And now the long-anticipated invasion of Ukraine by Mr Putin has occurred – and my question is this: have we reached the terminus of the Putin commodity train.
Bears are highly evolved social animals with intelligence comparable to that of the great apes. Bears often share friendship, resources and security. So is that why the Russian bear and the Wall Street bear have joined forces to do battle with the all-conquering Wall Street bull ( for security)?
Thursday’s heavily-anticipated US Consumer price report came in on the high side – and stocks plunged. Note that the Fed has been trying to convince everyone for months that the price rises we are all seeing was ‘transitory’. Lesson: Don’t trust the Fed.
As a ‘child’ of the sixties, I watched a very popular and lively TV show (in glorious B&W) called That Was The Week That Was. It was the first of a succession of satirical political programmes that kicked off the transition from the age of deference (doffing our caps to our ‘betters’) to the current age of outspoken condemnation (and worse) of our so-called leaders (aka the ‘elite’).
Stock indexes are now in full-blown retreat, as I intimated from last week’s blog caption ‘It drops slowly – then all at once’. Last week the Dow lost almost 2,000 pts. See what I mean? Markets usually fall a lot faster than they rise as is encapsulated in the aphorism You fall out of the window faster than you climb the stairs.
