With Thursday’s revelation that a major US Venture Capital (VC) bank has gone bust and another California retail bank is in difficulties, the trigger was pulled for the start of the Great Wipe-Out. Suddenly, the eyes of investors swivelled round from staring at next week’s
It never fails, does it? Just when traders started taking the scales away from their eyes and went full-on hawkish interest rates as urged by the Fed, stocks started to recover. The latest hawkish comments from a Feb member onWednesday finally convinced them the Fed
So, how high will US rates go before the Fed starts cutting them? That’s the big question on the minds of pro investors/traders. To guestimate their projections they pore over every detail of the stream of US economic news for the best trading strategy. And
As I noted to my VIP Traders Club members, on the recent data dump days, the Dow swung violently by around 600 pts up and then down and then up first on the FOMC of 1 February and then again on the US CPI of
The latest US macro data prints are swinging stock indexes around like they are on rubber bands. Last week we had the FOMC with 600 pip Dow down/up swings that day. Then a few days later, Mr Powell gave a speech where he basically made
The much-anticipated FOMC statement on Wednesday’s small 25 bps hike was greeted with open arms by the bulls, who already had pushed the FANG Gang up last month by an astonishing 40%+. Of course, Big Tech had been clobbered most of last year by rising
I have been laying out my case for an imminent reversal in the stock averages in recent issues. Last week’s title was an ironic Up, Up and Away?. Seems my hot air balloon has run out of propane! And once again the timing was spot
It’s suddenly risk-on last week with the battered-down Nasdaq climbing 8% from its bear market low on 6 January. And this sudden change of heart has the MSM in a tizzy with flights of fancy projecting a new bull market. It always amazes me what
It seems markets have never been so divided as we kick off the new year. The bulls are looking at the Fed hiking rates up to the ‘termination point’ – currently around the 5% Fed Funds mark – from where they will retreat – and
Just about every pundit has now said it in their year-end copy: What an incredible year was 2022! Who could have predicted it? blah, blah, blah. So I won’t insult you with a repeat. Only to say that I believe you ain’t seen nothin’ yet
What a year! It is customary for market commentators and fortune-tellers such as myself offer a summary of last year’s performance. And to offer ‘insights’ (aka guesses) into what to expect next year. But I like to be different! That way, we are kept on
Since the mid-October lows in the indexes, stocks have rallied sharply on bullish expectations for 2023. These have been based partly on what the Fed may do to temper their rate hikes on the back of falling inflation. This new-found optimism from the depths of
