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Are investors under a spell?

August 18, 2016 // 0 Comments

I have just read a fascinating article about Joseph Goebbels’ personal secretary (Frau Pomsel) and her life at the very heart of the Nazi regime. She was in Hitler’s bunker in 1945 when both Hitler and Goebbels committed suicide as the Russians knocked on their door.  She is now 103 and apparently as sharp as a pin. But what struck me was her statement: [...]

Many markets lack conviction this summer

August 13, 2016 // 1 Comment

With many markets well into the summer doldrums, I thought I would update my thoughts on a few key markets.   T-Bonds A couple of weeks ago, I had pinpointed a highly likely top in the Treasuries and the market then sold off by seven big points to the July low where we took partial profits based on my Split Bet Strategy. But there was also one possible fly in the [...]

Will the Rhubarb Battery take over?

August 11, 2016 // 0 Comments

In many areas of life, it seems humankind is on the cusp of some major changes.  In the markets, it appears inevitable that sometime in the not-too-distant future, the mania for assets of all kind will burn out and stocks in particular will enter a severe deflationary collapse and that most hated asset – cash – will be king once more. But in a related field [...]

Where’s the cash?

August 8, 2016 // 0 Comments

Saturday’s blogpost contained a comment that I suggest bullish sentiment towards UK gilts surely must be reaching a peak, as has already occurred last month in US Treasuries where the 30-yr T-Bond has declined by seven full points to Friday’s close.  This was from a position of extreme bullish sentiment as measured by DSI and COT data, as well as US MSM [...]

A Tale of Two Bonds

August 6, 2016 // 2 Comments

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.  It was the age of bullishness, it was the age of bearishness… (as Charles Dickens almost wrote). On Thursday, Carney unleashed his version of the Big Bazooka by lowering UK Bank Rate and oiling and then re-starting his printing presses to buy oodles of gilts and now corporate bonds to add to his already mammoth [...]
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